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Cost of Floods on Pakistan's Economy -- Acknowledgements -- Table of Contents -- List of Tables -- List of Figures -- ABSTRACT -- Chapter 1 -- Introduction -- What does the paper aim to Prove -- 1.1 History of Natural Disasters in Pakistan -- 1.2 Natural Disasters Comparison -- 1.3 How it all Began -- 1.4 Damage Assessment Analysis -- Chapter 2 -- Literature Review -- Chapter 3 -- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 3.1 Structure of the Model -- 3.2 Direct Impacts -- 3.3 Indirect Impacts -- 3.3.1 Agriculture to Manufacturing -- 3.3.2 Agriculture to Services -- 3.4 Data Sources and Description -- 3.4.1 Agricultural Sector -- 3.4.2 Manufacturing Sector -- 3.4.3 Services Sector -- 3.4.4 Gross Domestic Product -- 3.5 Linkages in the Model -- 3.5.1 List of Endogenous and Exogenous Variables in the Model -- 3.6 Empirical Results -- 3.6.1 Behavioural Equations -- Chapter 4 -- SIMULATIONS OF THE MODEL -- 4.1 Magnitude if Exogenous Variables -- 4.1.1 Agriculture -- 4.1.2 Net Exports -- 4.1.3 Home- Remittances -- 4.1.4 Real Interest rate -- 4.2 Results of Simulation of Model -- 4.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis -- Chapter 5 -- CONCLUSION -- Appendix -- REFERENCES.
With an average annual rainfall of less than 240 mm, Pakistan is one of the most arid countries in the world. Every year, during the monsoon season from July to September, Pakistan experiences heavy rainfalls. However, this year the substantial amount of unexpected monsoon rainfall resulted in heavy floods as a consequence of the absence of adequate infrastructure (dams, barrages, reservoirs). The heavy rainfall started in the last week of July 2010, and continued for days in the regions of Balochistan, followed closely by a second spell in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The rain continued until the first few days of August 2010, causing tremendous damage to both property and lives. The heavy rainfall flooded the already flooded rivers and streams, causing the river banks to burst. The flood water started causing destruction in KPK, and continued its journey towards Punjab and Sindh. The floods in Pakistan have had an impact on all the sectors of the economy. Handling these problems would require a model that could simultaneously capture the major relations among different sectors of the economy, and thereby, trace through the indirect and secondary effects on the economy. The model used to calculate the impact is subjected to a number of simulations that are run on E-views. In this study, the author uses a model that reports clearly what Pakistan will face in terms of production loss and recovery. The results are assessed on the basis of past data and the current situation in the country. The author's main purpose is to define the costs Pakistan faces in such a situation, and further, to develop policy recommendations. Auszug aus dem Text Text Sample: Chapter 1.3, How it all Began: Beginning of the monsoon season is the most looked forward time as it brings the much needed rain to the arid region of Pakistan. But in 2010 we saw the highest recorded
rainfall in a decade; submerging vast areas and causing people to evacuate these areas. The heavy rainfall began and continued for days in the regions of Balochistan followed closely by a second spell of heavy monsoon rains over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which commenced in the last week of July 2010 and persisted up till first few days of August. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK); flooding the cities of Peshawar, Nowshera, Swat, Charsada, etc. and cutting off these areas from the rest of the province and closing all routes towards the flood affected areas. These rains generated unmatched flood flows in the major as well as secondary and tertiary rivers, including the nullahs in KPK, Punjab and then Sindh. The local rivers and nullahs in Baluchistan also saw extraordinary floods. The river Indus, at some of the control points in Punjab and Sindh, along with River Swat, Panjkora and Kabul experienced historic flood flows. The heavy rainfall caused the river banks to burst, flooding the low regions and those nearer to the banks. Many houses, schools, roads were either severely damaged or destroyed leaving the people without food, shelter and medical attention. With half the province of KPK under water barely surviving the blow from the natural disaster, the rainfall then hit Punjab and affected the Indus River Basin. The flow of the water from the heavy rainfall and the rivers pushed its way from KPK to Punjab as it made its way downstream to southern Punjab and Sindh. Though the Metrological (MET) Department and Natural Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of Pakistan had forewarned the people to spare them from the demolition; the floods still managed to cause major damages to the people, land, infrastructure, etc. Houses, schools, hospitals, electricity poles, transformers, cropped areas, standing crops, cattle, sheeps, animals; nothing was spared by the wrath
of the flood water. Though millions of people lost their homes, shelter, and their income earning assets; the death toll wasn't as high as compared to the other natural disasters seen in Pakistan. People moved to safer areas in the hope of being spared from the destruction. But even reaching the safe areas the people were affected in one way or the other. The authorities were a slow in relief efforts for the flood victims. There were food and water shortages, and shelter wasn't available to most of the victims. The people were in need of proper medical facilities. The army played a major role in trying to help the people reach safe grounds and support those who managed to get there on their own. The private sector, civilians and a number of both national and international organizations have all put in every effort to generate funds for these people. Food items, clothing, shelter, etc. were collected in large quantity and taken to the flood affected areas. Till present day, relief efforts are still taking place. The government along with international agencies like the UN, World Bank and Asian Development Bank are working towards restoration of the affected areas. Estimate of the damage and costs of reconstruction have already been made and mentioned later in the study. Biographische Informationen The author has an undergraduate in BSc. (Hons) in Economics from Kinnaird College for Women Lahore. During her studies she was part of the college hockey team. This led her to the chance to play in the national hockey championship as part of the Lahore Team in 2007, and the Pakistan Railways Club Team in 2010. After her undergraduate studies, she did an MS in Public Policy at Beaconhouse National University. Being on the Dean's Honour List, earned her an opportunity to work as a Research Associate at the Institute of Public Policy, Beaconhouse National
University. Here, she got the chance to work on different projects with the RIS India, DFID, Planning Commmission of Pakistan, UNDP and the GIZ Pakistan. Moreover, she published a paper on 'Infrastructure and Growth' in the Annual Conference at PIDE Islamabad. Later, her interests and volunteer work at Akhuwat, an interest free microfinace organization, inspired her to write an article on how Akhuwat is empowering women through its micro financing. This article was published in 'Money Matters', 'The News International in 2012'. Currently, she is working at the Centre of Public Policy and Governance, Forman Christian College Lahore. In collaboration with the USIP and the government of Punjab, Pakistan, she helps to develop a 'Framework for Youth Policy and De-radicalization' in Pakistan.
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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2019. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.